Just thinking of how nice the past few months have been weather wise where I am and got curious about this year’s Hurricane Predictions. Habit to wonder from living in Florida a quarter century leads me to inquiry. It must be nice to be paid to make these inquiries and set the odds for the market speculators who will win or loose according to the weather. 😀
Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane activity?
We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about the probability of the coming year’s hurricane activity which is superior to climatology. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are curious to know how active the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years.
Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity…………….